CMS Plan Year 2025 → 2026

Which carriers are killing plans. Which counties lose coverage.

Live decommission and service-area-reduction tracker for Medicare Advantage, Part D, and ACA Marketplace. Built on the same CMS Public Use Files that run Healthcare.gov.

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Medicare contract terminations
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Service area reductions
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ACA plans discontinued
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Full ACA issuer exits
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Medicare Advantage members
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Standalone Part D members
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Avg MA Part D premium / mo
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Avg overall Star Rating

Risk by State

Color-coded by aggregate carrier-exit pressure. Click a state for detail.

Low (0-14) Moderate (15-34) High (35-59) Critical (60+)

Carriers by Risk

Ranked by terminations, service-area reductions, and consolidations.

Forward Guidance from Public Carriers SEC 10-K

What the big public carriers told their own investors about their 2026-2027 Medicare Advantage, Part D, and ACA strategy. Pulled directly from the latest 10-K filings on SEC EDGAR. This is what’s coming before CMS publishes next year’s crosswalk.

Kill List

Every plan terminated, discontinued, or non-renewed in the current transition.

LOB Carrier / Issuer Plan State Status

Methodology

Data source

CMS Public Use Files (Medicare Landscape, Plan Crosswalk, Health Insurance Marketplace PUF). Same files Healthcare.gov and Medicare.gov are built from. Updated when CMS publishes the annual refresh.

Medicare risk score (0-100)

Weighted mix of: percent of a carrier's plans that were terminated or non-renewed, percent with a service area reduction (SAR), and percent that were consolidated. Terminations weigh heaviest because they strand members.

ACA risk score (0-100)

Weighted mix of: percent of 2025 plans that did not return in 2026, percent net plan-count shrinkage, and a state-exit penalty when the issuer pulls out of an entire state. Full market exits auto-score 100.

State risk

For Medicare, terminations and SARs are attributed to a carrier's states proportionally to each state's share of the carrier's 2026 footprint. For ACA, the score combines discontinued-plan rate with the share of 2025 issuers that did not file 2026 plans.

What this tracks

Plans that are gone from the 2026 market: terminated contracts, non-renewed plans, service-area reductions, consolidated renewals, and full issuer exits. Not re-branding or internal plan renames if the plan ID persists.

Updated

-. Built by Strategic AI Architects on The Brain - our 27-source federal-data MCP stack.

POWERED BY THE BRAIN

SAA’s 27-source federal-data MCP stack

Every number on this page comes from a government data source, routed through an MCP server that SAA built. The stack behind this tool:

Active feeds · powering this tool today

saa-brain Live

CMS Public Use Files: Medicare Landscape (2026 plan/carrier lineup), Plan Crosswalk (2025->2026 terminations, SARs, consolidations), HIOS Marketplace PUF (ACA plan + issuer detail). Sanctioned-plan registry. This is what every plan-kill number is computed from.

saa-healthcare Live

Medicare enrollment by state / plan / county. Plan-type mix (HMO / PPO / SNP variants). Part-D premiums + Overall Star Ratings per plan. ACA metal-level + plan-type distribution. This is how we get the 35M MA members hero stat, the per-state member counts, and the mix bars on each state detail card.

Available feeds · next wires to sharpen prediction

Newly wired · predicting next year’s plan kills

saa-sec-edgar Live

Latest 10-K forward-looking disclosures for UnitedHealth, Humana, CVS/Aetna, Cigna, Centene, Elevance, and Molina. Every 10-K-derived signal in the “Forward Guidance” card above came through this feed. Carriers disclose county-exit plans and MA strategy to investors months before the CMS crosswalk publishes.

Available · queued for next upgrade

saa-sec-edgar-deep Dormant

Next upgrade: quarterly earnings-call transcripts. Carriers speak more frankly on calls than in the 10-K. Would add a "last earnings call said..." feed.

saa-socrata Available

CMS Star Rating history + CAHPS member-experience scores. Currently we only see the current-year star rating; wiring Socrata gives us the trajectory (was this plan 4.0 three years ago and declining toward 2.5? If so, CMS termination is almost automatic).

saa-context Available

Agent book-of-business memory. Agent loads their book, the map auto-highlights their counties, sorts their at-risk carriers first, and flags members on plans getting killed Jan 1 2026. Turns this tool from a research page into a save-my-clients dashboard.

saa-bls-safety Niche

Bureau of Labor Statistics employment + wage data for NAICS 524 (insurance carriers). Workforce cuts at a carrier often precede market exits by 6-12 months. Small signal, cheap to add.

Wider Brain stack · powers other SAA tools

saa-epa

EPA air quality, toxic releases, superfund sites. Used in our environmental-risk tools.

saa-noaa-risk

NOAA active weather alerts + storm history. Used in our catastrophe-exposure dashboards.

saa-flood

NFIP flood claims + flood zone lookup. Powers our flood-insurance agency tools.

saa-osha

OSHA inspections, violations, accident search. Powers our workers’ comp risk tools.

saa-phmsa

Pipeline and hazmat incident history. Powers our energy-sector risk tools.

saa-fmcsa

Commercial trucking carrier safety + crashes. Powers our transportation insurance tools.

saa-nhtsa

NHTSA vehicle recalls + safety ratings. Powers our auto-insurance agency tools.

saa-usgs

USGS earthquake history + seismic hazard. Powers our property catastrophe tools.

saa-hub

The central orchestrator that routes missions across every other MCP in the Brain.

Every MCP listed above was built by Strategic AI Architects. Your agency can subscribe to all of them plus agent-level dashboards through strategicaiarchitects.com.